United States – November 12, 2026 -- The five-year US summer peak demand growth forecast has reached 166 GW by 2030, more than six times the 24 GW projected in 2022, according to Grid Strategies. Utilities are being pushed to replace single-line forecasts with scenario simulation.
Grid Strategies forecast climbed from 24 GW to 166 GW in three years
The aggregate forecast stood at 38 GW in 2023 and 64 GW in 2024 before the 2025 report lifted it to 166 GW. Data centers account for roughly 55% of that projected growth. Transportation electrification and the energy transition are also disrupting variables that once evolved gradually.
Utility assets are built to run for 30 to 40 years, but the conditions that justified an investment can shift several times before it enters operation.
A fully built plant can earn nothing while awaiting grid approval
DAPLAN describes a plant with a multimillion-dollar investment already committed that generates zero revenue while studies, technical validation and interconnection approvals are pending. The utility keeps buying power on the wholesale market meanwhile, which strains debt management and disrupts the investment timeline.
For small and mid-sized utilities, a sudden jump in transformer prices or a longer supplier lead time can throw off a five-year investment plan.
Quanam's Pablo Molina calls for tracing every variable to the bottom line
Molina, Vertical Specialist DAPLAN at Quanam, says planning's biggest value is asking “what happens if this variable changes” and following the impact through projected financial statements.
In practice, utilities would test scenarios including accelerating demand, supplier cost changes, delayed connections, higher interest rates and regulatory changes that alter investment terms. That requires assessing asset condition, maintenance schedules, supply costs, construction timelines and demand forecasts together. When Engineering, Operations, Regulatory and Finance work from different data versions, each team's view is incomplete for the organization.
Small public power utilities face the thinnest margin for error
Small and mid-sized US public power utilities answer directly to city councils and local boards. They lack the financial cushion and regulatory resources of large investor-owned utilities.
Overbuilding capacity passes avoidable debt on to customers, while underinvesting can compromise service reliability and limit local economic growth. Every decision must be justified to regulators and ratepayers.