US Peak Demand Forecast Jumps to 166 GW, Forcing Utility Replanning
United States – November 12, 2026 -- The five-year US summer peak demand growth forecast has reached 166 GW by 2030, more than six times the 24 GW projected in 2022, according to Grid Strategies. Utilities are being pushed to replace single-line forecasts with scenario simulation.
Grid Strategies forecast climbed from 24 GW to 166 GW in three years
The aggregate forecast stood at 38 GW in 2023 and 64 GW in 2024 before the 2025 report lifted it to 166 GW. Data centers account for roughly 55% of that projected growth. Transportation electrification and the energy transition are also disrupting variables that once evolved gradually.
Utility assets are built to run for 30 to 40 years, but the conditions that justified an investment can shift several times before it enters operation.