NUREMBERG – November 13, 2026 -- The Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit, BA) plans a deficit of €8.2 billion in its 2027 budget, which its Administrative Board has adopted. Federal loans will cover the gap. With loans taken in 2025 and 2026, the debt to the federal government is set to reach up to €18.7 billion by the end of 2027. That equals about 44% of the €42.4 billion in contribution income planned for 2027, by our calculation.
The 2027 deficit is smaller than 2026's, but the loan stock keeps growing
The BA expects a shortfall of up to €9.0 billion in 2026, also covered by federal loans. Against that ceiling, the 2027 deficit is €0.8 billion, or about 9%, lower. If 2026 reaches the full €9.0 billion, the stated figures imply roughly €1.5 billion in loans from 2025 (€18.7 billion minus €9.0 billion minus €8.2 billion). The BA did not disclose repayment terms or interest conditions for the loans.
The budget plans total revenue of €50.8 billion against expenditure of €58.8 billion. Contribution income of €42.4 billion is €1.3 billion above the level expected for 2026, a rise of about 3% from roughly €41.1 billion. Expenditure rises by about €0.6 billion, or roughly 1%, from around €58.2 billion. Contributions alone cover about 72% of planned spending.
Unemployment benefit absorbs 52% of planned spending
The BA budgets €30.8 billion for unemployment benefit, level with actual spending in 2026 and about 52% of the €58.8 billion total. Five years ago the figure was more than €14 billion lower, according to the BA.
The agency attributes the increase mainly to economic weakness. It says unemployment is up 24%, or 580,000 people, from 2022. By our calculation, that implies roughly 2.4 million unemployed in 2022. The BA says a balanced budget depends on an economic recovery.
Administrative budget falls 4.9% while training funds rise
The BA is implementing the federal government's 2% personnel saving. It also plans a further €500 million in active savings, which is under 1% of planned expenditure. The administrative budget is cut by 4.9% against the current year. The BA also plans savings in IT and infrastructure but gave no figures.
By 2032 the BA aims to relieve the equivalent of 7,800 positions through digitalisation, automation and process optimisation. It says this is meant to offset demographic retirements among staff.
Spending on continuing training rises to €4.2 billion, almost €0.2 billion more than expected for 2026. That is about 7% of planned expenditure. The BA says the budget prioritises qualification and instruments close to work and training.
Board deputy chair Piel demands loan forgiveness from the federal government
Anja Piel, deputy chair of the Administrative Board, said the board approved the budget despite difficult decisions. She said contribution stability and a functioning BA are only possible if the federal government forgives the loans. She also called for a permanent federal grant to stabilise unemployment insurance during the economic transition.
Board chair Dr. Anna Robra said unemployment insurance must focus on moving people into work quickly and permanently. She said every euro spent on employment promotion must make a measurable contribution. The board and the executive board back the coalition committee's goal of keeping the unemployment insurance contribution stable.
BA chief executive Andrea Nahles said reaching agreement on the 2027 budget took longer and was harder this year, given the strained finances.