West Lafayette – November 03, 2026 -- The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose to 126 in October from 123 in September, as the Index of Current Conditions gained 16 points and the Farm Capital Investment Index climbed from 39 to 55, its strongest reading in nearly a year.
The Index of Future Expectations fell 2 points, with high input costs remaining producers' biggest concern. The survey of 400 U.S. farmers ran Oct. 12-16.
Farm financial and investment indexes improve, but large purchases stay on hold
The Farm Financial Performance Index rose from 90 to 94. Only 20% of respondents said now is a good time to invest in machinery and buildings, so most producers still hesitate on large outlays.
The improvement coincided with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's distribution of Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage payments. The survey did not ask respondents about the effect of those payments.
Balance sheet confidence drops from 75% in January to 62%
The survey's resilience questions found 62% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that their balance sheets are strong. Another 60% said the same about holding a solid working capital position. In the January 2026 survey, 75% reported a strong balance sheet, so producers are less confident in their financial position than at the start of the year.
Long-term farmland value expectations fall 6 points to 162
Producers remain optimistic about farmland values over the next five years. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dipped 1 point to 125, while the Long-Term Index dropped 6 points to 162. Respondents named alternative investments, interest rates and inflation as the three factors with the greatest influence on farmland values.
Only 35% now see tariffs strengthening agriculture long term
Previous surveys found that between 49% and 70% of respondents believed increased U.S. tariff use would strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. This month the share was 35%.
Fewer than half of respondents (48%) said the country is headed in the right direction. That is the second consecutive month below the 60% average recorded from July 2025 to June 2026.
"While producers saw some relief this month due to government program support, many remain uncertain about how future policy decisions could affect agriculture," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture.