Mainz – November 05, 2026 -- Prices for copper and nickel could nearly double by 2035 as demand from the energy transition, power grids and AI data centers outpaces supply, according to an analysis by credit insurer Coface. The study projects structural shortages across copper, nickel and aluminium.
Nickel faces a 6.5-million-tonne deficit by 2035
Nickel shows the widest projected gap. Battery production and electric mobility could push the market into a deficit of about 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, equal to roughly 35% of forecast demand.
Copper could post a supply deficit of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, depending on demand. In a high-demand scenario, the gap could reach up to 17% of global demand, Coface industry analyst Simon Lacoume said, adding that the rapid build-out of data centers adds pressure.
For aluminium, Coface expects the gap to widen to between 5 million and 15 million tonnes by 2035. Raw materials are less of a bottleneck than for copper and nickel. The constraints are investment in new production capacity and access to competitive energy.
Clean technologies could account for 35% of copper and nickel demand
The International Energy Agency estimates that clean technologies could make up around 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035. Coface says urbanization, infrastructure spending and emerging-market growth have long supported demand, with the energy transition and digitalization now adding further drivers.
Fewer than 1% of exploration projects reach production
Supply is slow to respond. Fewer than 1% of exploration projects reach the production phase, and the average lead time to extraction is almost 20 years. Falling ore grades, rising costs and low returns also weigh on capacity expansion.
Production and processing are concentrating in a few countries. Indonesia accounts for 67% of global nickel ore output, while China controls more than half of global refining capacity for several metals.
Trade restrictions on critical minerals have more than tripled in a decade
Trade curbs on critical minerals are also rising. A total of 1,138 such measures were in force worldwide at the end of 2025, up from 357 ten years earlier.
Coface expects the widening supply-demand gap to lift prices durably. Lacoume also anticipates significant price increases for aluminium. He said access to critical metals is becoming a strategic competitive factor for companies.