BOSTON – November 06, 2026 -- Removing policy barriers to distributed energy resources (DERs) would avoid an estimated $614 billion in US power system costs through 2050, according to a Brattle Group report prepared for The Pew Charitable Trusts. The savings would offset roughly half of projected household electricity bill increases, excluding inflation-related rises.
DER capacity would more than quadruple to over 400 GW by 2050
The report covers distributed solar, battery storage and demand flexibility such as managed EV charging across residential, commercial and industrial customers. Brattle estimates the policy changes would add more than 400 gigawatts (GW) of DER capacity, nearly one-third of the current US generation fleet. The added capacity would lower the risk and cost of overbuilding conventional infrastructure against uncertain demand.
The analysis combines long-term power system modeling with an assessment of deferrable local distribution upgrades. It spans 25 US regions and covers both bulk power and distribution systems.
Three policy changes account for $266 billion in avoided costs
Incorporating DERs into distribution system planning, reducing permitting costs and reforming interconnection processes would deliver $266 billion of the total through 2050. These three measures come from the six recommendations in Pew's April policy playbook.
Ryan Hledik, a Brattle Principal and report coauthor, said the opportunity is to "treat them as resources in utility planning."
Household bills would fall $122 a year by 2050
Average household electricity bills would be $122 lower per year by 2050 in current dollars. Customers, rather than large-scale developers, would earn direct compensation for grid services, and the net savings are large enough to lower rates for all customers.
Overbuilding costs would drop 40% if demand growth disappoints
In a scenario where anticipated load growth falls short, greater DER reliance would cut overbuilding costs by $33 billion between 2030 and 2040, a reduction of roughly 40%.
Expanded DERs would shift about 105 GW of utility-scale storage capacity to distributed storage and other grid-edge flexibility.
Gas additions fall 22%, equal to 175 plants
DER expansion could avoid roughly 70 GW of projected net gas additions, a 22% reduction equal to 175 natural gas-fired plants nationally. Cumulative power sector CO2 emissions would fall an estimated 3% through 2050 against the status quo scenario.
In a scenario requiring a carbon-free generation fleet by 2050, expanded DERs would offset about 175 GW of utility-scale capacity. Annual generation costs in 2050 would be $45 billion lower, nearly 20% of the incremental cost of decarbonizing the power supply.
Resilience and transmission benefits sit outside the estimates
The authors note that resilience and some potential transmission benefits are not quantified and could add value. Maureen Quinlan, who leads Pew's work to decarbonize the grid, tied the findings to demand growth from data centers, new manufacturing and electrification.