Hyderabad – September 21, 2026 -- The global soybean oil market is set to expand from $43.87 billion in 2026 to $57.66 billion by 2031, a 5.62% compound annual growth rate, according to Mordor Intelligence. Renewable diesel mandates and the EU Deforestation Regulation are reshaping demand and sourcing patterns across the value chain, while new crushing capacity in Brazil and Argentina offsets slower North American expansion.
US biofuel mandates lock in record demand floor for soybean oil
The EPA finalized record-high Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027 in March 2026, with biodiesel and renewable diesel production projected to grow more than 60% versus 2025 levels. The rule strengthens crush margins for domestic processors and guarantees a structural demand base that buffers the market against swings in food consumption, according to the report.
EU Deforestation Regulation imposes December 2026 compliance deadline on soy traders
Soy is one of seven commodities explicitly covered by the EU Deforestation Regulation, alongside palm oil and cocoa. Large and medium operators face a compliance deadline of December 30, 2026, with micro and small operators following by June 30, 2027. Suppliers able to document deforestation-free origin stand to capture preferential access to EU-facing demand as the deadline nears.
South American crushing capacity expansion offsets slower North American growth
Additional crushing capacity coming online in Brazil and Argentina is balancing slower expansion in North America, keeping global soybean oil output on an upward trajectory even as regional growth rates diverge. High-oleic cultivars and enzyme-assisted extraction are helping processors cut costs and extend shelf life as South American supply takes a larger share of incremental global production.
Compliance capability emerges as a new competitive differentiator among major crushers
The market remains moderately consolidated, with Bunge Limited, Cargill, Incorporated, Wilmar International Ltd, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, and Richardson International Limited competing on crush capacity, feedstock sourcing, and distribution reach. Bhavesh-Narasinha Varute, Senior Research Manager at Mordor Intelligence, said renewable energy mandates and EU deforestation-compliance requirements are reshaping sourcing across the value chain, with the report mapping demand shifts across food, feed, and biofuel end uses based on direct supply-chain auditing.
Asia-Pacific and Middle East and Africa sustain steady food-grade volume demand
Europe's demand is increasingly shaped by regulatory compliance as processors and retailers adjust sourcing under the Deforestation Regulation. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa continue to represent large, price-sensitive consumption markets for food-grade soybean oil, supporting volume demand alongside biofuel-driven growth in the Americas.