MIAMI – October 29, 2026 -- Boeing projects that air cargo traffic will double over the next 20 years, lifting the global freighter fleet 67% from 2,395 airplanes in 2025 to 4,010 by 2045. The forecast, part of the company's 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast, was released at The International Air Cargo Association's Air Cargo Forum in Miami.
Operators need 2,930 new and converted freighters over 20 years
About 55% of those deliveries will add capacity, while roughly 45% will replace older, less efficient freighters. Two-thirds of deliveries will be converted passenger airplanes, and the remainder will be new-production freighters.
Dedicated freighters are expected to carry more than half of global air cargo traffic in the long term. Historically, main-deck freighters have moved approximately 55% of traffic measured in cargo tonne-kilometers.
Traffic to grow 3.5% a year, led by Asia-linked trade
Boeing expects annual traffic growth of 3.5% over the two decades, outpacing long-term economic and trade growth. Trade flows touching Asia will lead that expansion and account for approximately 60% of the global market.
Growing demand for express services will lift integrators' share of global air cargo traffic to nearly 25% in 2045. Nearly one-third of all air cargo revenue goes to airlines that combine passenger belly capacity with dedicated main-deck freighters.
Record 2025 volumes and AI hardware shipments underpin demand
Global air cargo traffic set an annual record in 2025, growing nearly 5% from 2024 despite trade volatility and geopolitical disruptions. Boeing cites e-commerce, direct-to-consumer business models and high-tech goods as the key demand drivers. It also points to supply-chain diversification as carriers rework route networks around shifting trade lanes.
According to IATA, more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025.
Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing, said "dedicated freighters will remain essential to global commerce" as trade patterns change and demand for time-sensitive, high-value goods grows.
Air freight carries one-third of trade value on under 1% of volume
Air cargo accounts for less than 1% of global trade by volume but roughly one-third of its value, because shipments skew toward perishable, high-value and time-sensitive goods. In 2025, airlines with freighter operations, both cargo-only and passenger carriers, captured approximately 90% of industry revenue of about $170 billion.