Boston – October 29, 2026 -- Demand for key critical minerals will reach roughly 120% to 250% of forecast supply through 2040, and industrial companies are underestimating their exposure, according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report. BCG's proprietary model covers rare earths, graphite, copper and lithium. The report, "Why Critical Mineral Shortages Are a CEO Issue," says three blind spots in standard risk metrics hide where the danger sits.
Gallium market under $350 million underpins $3.5 trillion of products
BCG calls the most overlooked inputs "mosquito minerals": their traded value is so small that they never reach a risk register. Gallium is traded in a market worth under $350 million a year, with production of about 900 tons. BCG estimates about $3.5 trillion of final products depend on it.
Arsenic follows the same pattern. The upstream market is about $50 million worldwide, yet a single producer supplies roughly 60% of the ultra-high-purity grade used in 5G and 6G infrastructure, data center optics, radar systems and defense electronics. BCG also notes that the rare earths in a fighter jet are worth less than the paint that coats it.
Gallium, germanium and arsenic are recovered as byproducts of other mining and industrial processes, so the host metal's market sets their supply. Even a sharp price spike may not bring new production.
Hidden dependencies below tier-one suppliers can halt production
Companies that buy almost no critical minerals directly can still be acutely exposed. The minerals arrive embedded in motors, magnets, power modules, lasers and sensors, and sit in the tools and processes used to make them, from crucibles and catalysts to dies and capital equipment.
Turbine blades, engine blocks and structural aerospace components are machined with cutting tools made of tungsten carbide bonded with cobalt. A manufacturer that has never bought either metal can still see production stop if those tools run short, and the dependency appears on no bill of materials.
For some minerals the bottleneck is processing, not mining. A map of where assets sit can look very different from a map of who owns them, so a supplier change that looks like diversification may leave exposure unchanged.
Governments have left most of $65 billion in critical mineral finance unspent
The International Energy Agency reports that public finance commitments to critical minerals in advanced economies reached around $65 billion in 2025, more than four times the 2023 level. BCG's review of government-backed vehicles found the flagship instruments barely deployed. Some countries have spent less than 10% of allocated capital and others nothing.
Offtake requirements are typically the main eligibility gate for these vehicles. BCG argues that companies without a clear view of their own exposure cannot make a credible offtake commitment and therefore cannot qualify. The funds carry conditions, including reporting obligations and localization requirements, and cover only about one tenth of the capital needed through 2040.
BCG found that several companies that reframed their approach and tapped public capital are industrial companies and trading firms, not miners. In each case the CEO and executive team led the effort to identify and correct the blind spots.
BCG managing director and partner Tycho Möncks, a coauthor, said most industrials track exposure through spend and direct supplier data, so the minerals that can stop a production line are often those they spend almost nothing on. Coauthor Karthik Valluru, a BCG managing director and senior partner, said: "Mapping that exposure properly is where the opportunity starts."