Munich – October 29, 2026 -- Arrivals from China in Germany are forecast to rise 178% between 2026 and 2036, the steepest increase among major source markets, according to a new Accor tourism study based on Tourism Economics projections.
Other Asian markets follow closely. South Korea is expected to grow 94%, Japan 92% and India 84% over the same period.
International overnight stays in Germany to grow 29% by 2036
Demand from Asia-Pacific could climb 111%, while the Middle East is projected to rise 112%. Total tourist overnight stays in Germany are expected to increase 24%, with domestic guests contributing a 22% gain.
Spending by international guests to outpace volume with a 75% rise
Total spending by international visitors is forecast to grow 75% by 2036, well ahead of the 29% increase in their overnight stays. Category forecasts:
- Transport: +88%
- Leisure, culture and sport: +79%
- Restaurants and food service: +78%
- Retail: +72%
The study says the added demand would reach restaurants, shops, cultural venues, leisure attractions and transport providers, not only hotels.
Netherlands and Switzerland stay on top while China moves to fifth
The Netherlands and Switzerland are projected to remain Germany's two largest international source markets in 2036, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom. China could already rank fifth by then.
The study cites rising incomes, new flight connections and better tourism infrastructure as the main drivers for travelers from Asia and the Middle East. Destinations and providers will need to adapt to different languages, booking habits and expectations.
Karelle Lamouche, CEO Europe & North Africa Premium, Midscale & Economy Brands at Accor, said Europe remains the world's most sought-after destination. She added that companies that understand shifting demand patterns and new types of travelers will perform best.
Europe's overnight stays to rise 32%, with smaller destinations gaining ground
Across Europe, tourist overnight stays are forecast to grow 32% between 2026 and 2036, while international overnight stays are expected to increase 42%.
Spain, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany stay in high demand. Latvia, Romania, Hungary, Lithuania, Croatia and Estonia are projected to post particularly high growth rates, helped by improved connections, comparatively affordable offers and interest in lesser-known destinations.
The study, "From Change to Opportunity - The Changing Face of Europe's Tourism Map to 2036", covers 47 European countries and uses Tourism Economics forecasts for 2026 to 2036.